Archive for year: 2013

By: Chris Stockness

In September 2013, Jones Lang LaSalle released a report on the most expensive streets for office space. Sand Hill Road, in Menlo Park, California, took top honors with an average full service rental rate of $110.76/sf. Nicollet Mall in Minneapolis, Minnesota, was 25th on the list, with an average full service rent of $36.60/sf. Of interest: Nicollet Mall moved up four spots from its 2011 ranking of 29th ($29.27/sf.). In terms of the Midwest, Minneapolis ranked 2nd to Chicago’s Wacker Drive, which was 20th on the list with an average full service rent of $36.62/sf. Detroit came in right behind Minneapolis at 26th ($30.00/sf.). Milwaukee’s Wisconsin Avenue ranked 29th ($28.90/sf.) and St. Louis’s Forsythe Boulevard at 30th ($28.06-sf.). America’s top 10 most expensive streets are all in coastal states.

Rank	Street	Market	2013 Average Full Service Rent on Street ($ PSF)
1	Sand Hill Road	Peninsula	$110.76
2	Fifth Avenue	New York	$102.02
3	University Avenue	Silicon Valley	$94.92
4	Greenwich Avenue	Fairfield County	$92.96
5	Pennsylvania Avenue	Washington, D.C.	$75.83
6	California Street	San Francisco	$62.10
7	Boylston Street	Boston	$60.20
8	Avenue of the Stars	Los Angeles	$60.12
9	Royal Palm Way	West Palm Beach	$58.52
10	Newport Center Drive	Orange County	$50.06
11	El Camino Real	San Diego	$43.32
12	Congress Avenue	Austin	$42.04
13	Arch Street	Philadelphia	$40.15
14	Brickell Avenue	Miami	$39.09
15	Union Street	Seattle	$38.92
16	Louisiana Street	Houston	$38.82
17	McKinney Avenue	Dallas	$38.55
18	NW Couch Street	Portland	$37.00
19	East Las Olas Boulevard	Fort Lauderdale	$36.84
20	Wacker Drive	Chicago	$36.62
21	Campus Drive	New Jersey	$35.65
22	Broadway	Oakland-East Bay	$33.96
23	17th Street	Denver	$32.78
24	Capital Mall	Sacramento	$32.25
25	Nicollet Mall	Minneapolis	$30.60

While other markets have seen a range of highs and lows over the years, office rents in the Twin Cities Market and the Minneapolis Central Business District (CBD) have not appreciated significantly in the past thirty-five years. This is due mainly to the availability of development opportunities in nearby first ring suburbs. Because of easy access to major roadways, such as the Interstate 494/694 loop and Interstate 35, supply keeps up with and often outpaces demand. The Minneapolis CBD has experienced major development cycles every 10 to 15 years with the last cycle occurring around the year 2000 and the previous cycle taking place in the late 1980s. During these cycles rental rates waxed, then waned, as more space was placed on the market. As a result, rents have not changed much overall. In contrast, most of the markets at the top of the list are on the east or west coast: locations in areas that are more densely developed, with limited options for new development. Characteristics of the10 most expensive U.S. streets for office space include the following:

1. Sand Hill Road, Menlo Park, California: $111.00/sf. (-2.5%)
   Historically the most expensive area in Silicon Valley, Sand Hill Road has deep roots with the venture capital community and houses the top VC firms in the greater Bay Area.
2. Fifth Avenue, Midtown Manhattan, NYC: $102.00/sf. (+5.0)
   Consistently ranked among the most expensive shopping streets in the world, Fifth Avenue is also home to numerous hedge funds looking for top-quality space in Midtown and willing to pay more for those coveted office locations with their unparalleled amenities.
3. University Avenue, Silicon Valley, Calif.: $95.00/sf. (+14.1%)
   Located in Downtown Palo Alto, University Avenue is known for its vibrant startup community, as its proximity to Stanford University makes it an ideal location for recruiting top young talent.
4. Greenwich Avenue, Greenwich, Conn.: $93.00/sf. (+3.4%)
   Greenwich Avenue competes with the best commercial real estate, leveraging its rich history preserved through older buildings. Top-shelf retail establishments dot the historically-rich corridor, from the top of the avenue down to the transit center. Hedge fund and financial services firms occupy the majority of office space, with many top executives only steps from their homes. Premier office buildings offer close proximity to train, and command rents as high as $100/sf.
5. Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, DC: $76.00/sf. (-5.5%) 
   Despite slower overall market conditions in recent quarters, Pennsylvania Avenue has continued to experience rent premiums. Known as “America’s Main Street,” Pennsylvania Avenue is home to many firms desiring close proximity to Washington’s two main points of power, the White House to the west and the Capitol to the east. Some of the increased growth in tenant demand in recent years has stemmed from the government affairs sector of corporate America.
6. California Street, San Francisco: $62.10/sf. (+43.9%)
   The main street of the city’s North Financial District, California Street, is known for its historic cable car routes. It is a wide street with high-priced real estate. Growth in technology and associated industries, along with limited new supply, has pushed rents up by almost half over the past two years.
7. Boylston Street, Boston: $60.20/sf. (+14.3%)
   Boylston Street runs through two of Boston’s most prestigious areas, Back Bay and the Financial District. It is home to numerous landmarks, trophy office buildings, and high-end retail, as well as some of the city’s most distinctive skyscrapers.
8. Avenue of the Stars, Los Angeles: $60.12/sf. (+1.9%)
   The main thoroughfare in highly-desirable Century City market, Avenue of the Stars is home to many prominent legal and financial service firms and talent firms, as well as the largest cluster of Class A Trophy assets on the Westside.
9. Royal Palm Way, West Palm Beach: $58.52/sf. (+0.9%)
   Royal Palm Way is dubbed “Banker’s Row” due to the concentration of wealth management and financial services firms, catering to wealthy residents on Palm Beach Island.
10. Newport Center Drive, Orange County: $50.06 p.sf. (+4.3%)
    Sitting on a bluff overlooking the Pacific Ocean, Newport Center Drive is a 1.3-mile ring that encompasses the Fashion Island retail center. World-class dining and retail amenities along with ocean view suites and access to posh residential neighborhoods make Newport Center Drive one of the most premiere places to rent office space in Southern California.

The Personal Income and Outlays report for April 2013 was recently published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. According to the data, the year-over-year inflation rate fell to an all-time low of 1.05% based on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy prices due to their volatile nature. This is the lowest annual core PCE increase ever reported; the previous low of 1.06% was reported more than fifty years ago in March 1963. Including food and energy, inflation was even lower at 0.74%.

Inflation is defined as the rate at which the general level of prices paid for goods and services rises over a period of time. Rising inflation means the cost of goods and services has increased, which leaves the consumer with less purchasing power because every dollar spent will purchase a smaller percentage of a good or service. If low inflation means smaller price increases and greater purchasing power per dollar, wouldn’t such an environment be one we should strive to maintain? Why does the Federal Reserve choose to target inflation at 2.0 percent?

While low inflation allows consumers to purchase more goods with their dollars, its effects extend far beyond the consumer’s wallet and some Federal Reserve officials are worried these conditions could spell trouble for our economy going forward.

Look for a more in-depth analysis in the Summer Issue of Valuation Viewpoint, available August, 2013.

In its latest release, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that total housing starts in December 2012 increased 36.9 percent over December 2011 to a seasonally adjusted annualized level of 954,000. This level is the highest reported since July 2008 and signals the housing market continues to improve. While this is a positive indicator for the economy, additional time spent investigating the underlying data may lead to a better understanding of current market conditions.

A closer look at the seasonally adjusted annualized data reveals that the 36.9 percent year-over-year growth was driven primarily by increased starts for multi-family units (apartment complexes) rather than single family units. Compared to a year earlier, multi-family starts increased 115.7 percent while single family units increased only 18.5 percent. The table below reports historic seasonally adjusted annualized data for the month of December from 2009 through 2012. This information uncovers a longer term trend in which multi-family start growth outpaced single family growth in each of the past three years, based on December data, and these growth rates have widened over time. The remaining component of housing starts, two-to-four unit data, is typically not given much consideration due to its small representation.

Could this growth inequality have any impact on the pace of our economic recovery? According to data released by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), it is very possible. Based on historical estimates from 2008, the average new single family home creates 3.05 jobs and $231,288 in total income, while an average multi-family rental unit creates only 1.16 jobs and $86,709 in total income. A detailed account of these potential economic impacts is shown in the table below.

This data suggests that the economic impact of constructing a new single family home is greater than that of a multi-family unit. Therefore, while housing start growth of any kind is positive in this environment, growth driven by single family units rather than multi-family units would likely prove more beneficial to the economy, all else being equal.