2016 Q4 Economic and Real Estate Wrapup and a Look Ahead

In spite of lingering global economic concerns, the U.S. economy continued to expand through the first 11 months of 2016.  According to the latest Beige Book, most districts indicated a modest to moderate pace of growth, and the overall economic outlook for the U.S. economy remains positive.  Tightening labor markets were reported in seven districts, retail sales and real estate markets are healthy, and the oil and gas markets have expanded, all indications that the market stands on solid economic footing.

Despite an encouraging overall outlook, commodity prices continue to be a source of some concern for the agricultural sector, despite generally satisfactory harvests reported by farmers.  Although stabilizing between $40 and $50 per barrel, spot oil prices remain significantly lower compared to the close of 2013,  putting significant pressure on energy-related firms.  Uncertainty in the energy sector, combined with the strength of the dollar, continues to hold back growth and a more encouraging outlook for the manufacturing sector.

Projecting forward, stability, if not growth, is anticipated in the Twin Cities area.  Employment is expected to continue to rise, buoyed by the region’s strong corporate presence.  With the regional labor market already tight, wage growth is expected, as employers look to attract new workers and keep existing talent.  In the commercial real estate market, the anticipated continued expansion of the e-commerce retail market should continue to drive demand for warehouse and distribution space, while the office market should continue to benefit from local companies looking to move their offices downtown, following the footsteps of companies such as United Properties and Select Comfort.  The reconstruction of the Nicollet Mall and the continuing redevelopment of the historic North Loop neighborhood should serve to further facilitate that trend.  Anticipated revenue from retail sales tax for 2017 has been reduced when compared to previous estimates, according to a recent press release from the Minnesota office and Budget, indicating ebbing confidence in the retail sector.

Projecting the national economy in 2017 is difficult; as it is not known what impact the incoming presidential administration will have on economic policy.  However, the Federal Reserve recently voted unanimously to raise its interest rate for just the second time since the financial crisis of 2008 (from 0.5% to 0.75%), acknowledging recent economic growth and signaling confidence that growth trends will continue, albeit at a slower rate than was anticipated in December 2015.  Still, the Federal Reserve appears to be reserving judgment, with the Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen recently saying, “We’re operating under a cloud of uncertainty at the moment.”

Looking back to 2016, the manufacturing sector as a whole continued to keep its head above water, in spite of challenges from some industries within the sector.  According to the ISM Report on Business®, the PMI® was recorded at 53.2% in November 2016, up slightly from 51.9% recorded in October 2016 and 48.4% noted in November 2015.  In comparison, economic activity in the non-manufacturing sectors expanded for the 82nd consecutive month in November 2016.  The following graph presents the five-year historical PMI® and NMI® index readings.pmi-and-nmiNon-farm employment at the national level increased by 1.6% over the year ended November 2016 on the net addition of over 2.25 million jobs.  Job growth in the Professional and Business Services and Education and Health Services sectors spearheaded job growth, with those industries posting year-over-year gains of roughly 588,000 and 576,000, respectively.  The following graph presents overall national non-farm employment growth.us-employmentEmployment gains noted across nearly all major markets continue to put downward pressure on unemployment rates.  Nationally, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased to 4.4% in October 2016, down 40 basis points from 4.8% recorded 12 months prior.  In comparison, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the state of Minnesota stood at 3.2% in October 2016, down 20 basis points from 3.4% recorded in the prior month but up 20 basis points from 3.0% noted in October of 2015.  Within the state, unemployment remains lowest in the Mankato market (2.5%), followed by the Rochester market (2.5%), then the Twin Cities and St. Cloud markets (3.1%).  The Duluth market, which is more closely tied to the national manufacturing sector, has the highest unemployment rate among the prominent Minnesota markets, at 4.6%. The following graph presents non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates at the national, regional, and local levels.minnesota-unemploymentRetail sales and real estate markets remain healthy nationally, aiding economic growth.  According to the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales at the national level are up approximately 2.9% year-to-date through October, and while fluctuating in the second half of 2015 and throughout the first half of 2016, consumer confidence appears to be on the rise since November 2016, which Chief Economist Richard Curtin attributes to the “expected positive impact of new economic policies” stemming from the results of the national election.  The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment stood at 98.0 in December of 2016, up from 93.8 in the prior month and 92.6 in December of 2015.

Meanwhile, transaction volume in the real estate markets continues to drive further growth and underlying market fundamentals are generally encouraging.  At the national level, the median home sale price in the existing, for-sale residential sector increased to $232,200 in the third quarter of 2016, up 6.0% from $219,100 reported 12 months prior, as home sale activity remained relatively strong.  In the commercial sector, fundamentals across all four major property types at the national level remain healthy to improving.

Conditions in the residential and commercial real estate markets within the Twin Cities market mirror national trends.  According to data released by the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors, in the Twin Cities for-sale residential market, the number of year-to-date closed home sales increased by 6.2% through November 2016, while the median home sale price increased by 5.7% during this same period, rising from $220,000 in November 2015 to $232,500 in November 2016.  Further indicating healthy demand, the average days on market decreased by 14.7% and the percentage of original list price received increased by 0.9% during this same period to 97.6%, as available inventory remains limited.  The following graph presents historical median home sale prices in the Twin Cities market.tc-median-home-sale-priceThe local apartment market is strong, with underlying fundamentals in the Twin Cities apartment market among the strongest in the nation.  While new construction activity in the Twin Cities market remains above historical norms, demand continues to exceed the pace of new additions to the existing apartment inventory, keeping vacancy rates well-below the market equilibrium of 5.0% (2.2%, according to Marcus and Millichap) and putting upward pressure on rental rates.  Demographic trends are in place to suggest demand for apartment units will remain healthy over the long term, and a decline in the pace of new construction will put upward pressure on occupancy levels and asking rents.  Benefitting existing apartment owners and operators, new apartment construction activity may have reached a cyclical peak, as year-to-date multifamily permitting activity is down roughly 10.4% compared to the first 10 months of 2015.  The following graph presents historical multifamily construction permitting activity in the Twin Cities market.
tc-multifamily-permittingThe region’s broad-based economy and employment growth continue to facilitate healthy demand within both the local for-sale residential and apartment markets.  Non-farm employment in the Twin Cities metropolitan area increased by 1.4% over the year ended in October 2016 on the net addition of about 26,500 jobs.  In a similar fashion to trends observed at the national level, growth in the Twin Cities market was strongest within the Education and Health Services and Professional and Business Services sectors, though the third-largest growth sector in the Twin Cities market was Financial Activities, which differed from the national market.  These three sectors combined to account for over 97% of job growth in the local market during this period.  Further employment growth in the Twin Cities market was held back by year-over-year job losses in the Wholesale Trade, Leisure and Hospitality, and Manufacturing sectors.  The following graph presents overall non-farm employment growth in the Twin Cities metropolitan area.twin-cities-employmentImprovements also continue to be noted within the industrial, office, and retail sectors in the Twin Cities market.  Strong demand for industrial space exists within the Twin Cities market and despite an uptick in new construction activity, vacancy rates within the local industrial sector continued to fall through the third quarter of 2016.  Demand in the Twin Cities industrial market remains strongest for warehouse and distribution space, yet all industrial segments continued to record healthy absorption.  Secular trends, most notably including the rise of e-commerce, are driving much of the demand for warehouse and distribution space.  Now accounting for over 8.0% of total retail sales (roughly double the market share posted in 2010) , e-commerce is anticipated to continue rising at a robust pace, and will continue to foster strong demand for warehouse and distribution space in the local, regional, and national industrial markets into the long term.  The following graph presents historical e-commerce retail sales as a percent of total retail sales.e-commerce-retail-sales

Data referenced in this report was current as of December 16, 2016, and includes preliminary figures, which are subject to revision.

Economy and Real Estate Market View – Q3 2016

In spite of lingering global economic concerns, the U.S. economy continued to expand through the first nine months of 2016.  According to the latest Beige Book, most districts indicated a modest to moderate pace of growth, and the overall economic outlook for the U.S. economy remains positive.  Providing an optimistic outlook, labor markets remain tight, retail sales and real estate markets are healthy, and the oil and gas markets are beginning to demonstrate signs of stabilization.

Despite an encouraging overall outlook, commodity prices continue to be a source of some concern.  Weakness in commodity prices continues to weigh on the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, with strong yields putting deflationary pressures on food prices.  Although stabilizing around $45 per barrel, spot oil prices remain significantly lower compared to the close of 2013, putting significant pressure on energy-related firms.  Weakness in the energy sector, combined with the strength of the dollar, continues to hold back growth and a more encouraging outlook for the manufacturing sector, with eight of the 18 manufacturing industries reporting contraction in October.

In the face of challenges within a number of industries, the manufacturing sector as a whole continues to keep its head above water.  According to the ISM Report on Business®, the PMI® was recorded at 51.9% in October of 2016, up slightly from 51.5% recorded in the month prior and 50.1% noted in October of 2015.  In comparison, economic activity in the non-manufacturing sectors expanded for the 81st consecutive month in October of 2016.  The following graph presents the five-year historical PMI® and NMI® index readings.

pmi-and-nmi

Non-farm employment at the national level increased by 1.8% over the year ended September of 2016 on the net addition of nearly 2.5 million jobs.  Job growth in the service-producing sectors is leading increasing overall payroll figures, with the most robust gains noted in the professional/business services and education/health services sectors.  From a year-over-year perspective, payroll figures in the service-producing sectors increased by 2.0% in September, followed by the government/public sector (0.8%) and the goods-producing sectors (0.3%).  The following graph presents overall national non-farm employment growth.

non-farm-employment

Employment gains noted across nearly all major markets continue to put downward pressure on unemployment rates.  Nationally, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased to 4.8% in September of 2016, down 20 basis points from 5.0% recorded 12 months prior.  In comparison, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the state of Minnesota stood at 3.4% in September of 2016, down 40 basis points from 3.8% recorded in the prior month but up 20 basis points from 3.2% in September of 2015.  From a statewide perspective, unemployment remains lowest in the Mankato and Rochester markets (2.8%), followed by the Twin Cities (3.3%) and St. Cloud (3.3%) markets.  The following graph presents non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates at the national, regional, and local levels.

unemployment

In addition to a tight labor market, retail sales and real estate markets remain healthy to facilitate economic growth.  Retail sales at the national level are up approximately 1.7% year-to-date through October. While fluctuating in the second half of 2015 and the first half of 2016, consumer confidence appeared to regain some momentum at the close of the third quarter.  The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment stood at 91.2 in September of 2016, up from 89.8 in the prior month and 87.2 in September of 2015.

Meanwhile, though entering into a mature stage of the cycle, transaction volume and new construction activity in the real estate markets continues to drive further growth and underlying market fundamentals are generally encouraging.  At the national level, the median home sale price in the for-sale residential sector increased to $240,900 in the third quarter of 2016, up 5.2% from $228,900 reported 12 months prior, as home sale activity remained relatively strong.  In the commercial sector, fundamentals across all four major property types at the national level remain healthy to improving.

Twin Cities market

Conditions in the residential and commercial real estate markets within the Twin Cities market mirror national trends.  In the Twin Cities for-sale residential market, the number of year-to-date closed home sales increased by 4.7% through October of 2016, while the median home sale price increased by 5.7% during this same period, rising from $220,000 in October of 2015 to $232,500 in October 2016.  Further indicating healthy demand, the average days on market decreased by 15.8% and the percentage of original list price received increased by 0.9% during this same period, as available inventory remains relatively limited.  The following graph presents historical median home sale prices in the Twin Cities market.

tc-median-home-sale-price

Conditions in the apartment market remain healthy, with underlying fundamentals in the Twin Cities apartment market among the strongest in the nation.  While new construction activity in the Twin Cities market remains above historical norms, demand continues to exceed the pace of new additions to existing apartment inventory, keeping vacancy rates well below the market equilibrium of 5.0% and putting upward pressure on rental rates.  Demographic trends suggest demand for apartment units will remain healthy over the long term, and a decline in the pace of new construction will put upward pressure on occupancy levels and asking rents.  Benefitting existing apartment owners and operators, new apartment construction activity may have reached a cyclical peak, as year-to-date multifamily permitting activity is down nearly 20.0% compared to the first nine months of 2015.  The following graph presents historical multifamily construction permitting activity in the Twin Cities market.

tc-multifamily-permitting

The region’s broad-based economy and employment growth continue to facilitate healthy demand within both the local for-sale residential and apartment markets.  Non-farm employment in the Twin Cities metropolitan area increased by 2.0% over the year ended in September 2016 on the net addition of 38,000 jobs.  Mirroring trends observed at the national level, growth in the Twin Cities market was strongest within the education/health services, professional/business services, and traditionally low-paying, other services sectors. These sectors combined to account for nearly 75.0% of job growth in the local market during this period.  Further employment growth in the Twin Cities market was held back by year-over-year job losses in the manufacturing, trade/transportation/utilities, and information sectors.  The following graph presents overall non-farm employment growth in the Twin Cities metropolitan area.

tc-non-farm-employment

Improvements also continue to be noted within the industrial, office, and retail sectors in the Twin Cities market.  Strong demand for industrial space exists within the Twin Cities market, and despite an uptick in new construction activity, vacancy rates within the local industrial sector remain resilient though it has caused some landlords to pause rent hikes.  Similar to trends observed at the national level, demand in the Twin Cities industrial market remains strongest for warehouse and distribution space, yet the light industrial segments also continue to record healthy absorption.  Secular trends, most notably including the rise of e-commerce, are driving much of the demand for warehouse and distribution space.  Accounting for over 8.0% of total retail sales, e-commerce is anticipated to continue rising at a robust pace, and will continue to foster strong demand for warehouse and distribution space in the local, regional, and national industrial markets into the long-term.  The following graph presents historical e-commerce retail sales as a percent of total retail sales.

e-commerce-retail-sales

Data referenced in this report was current as of November 13, 2016, and includes preliminary figures, which are subject to revision.

Shenehon Vessel on Lake Superior – Is There a Connection to Shenehon Company?

Some of our clients have reported seeing a 65.5-foot boat named Shenehon in Bayfield, Wisconsin on Lake Superior and wondered about the boat’s story.

RV_Shenehon_rearview.jpgThe vessel is a converted Tug-Transport (T) boat, built in 1953 by the U.S. Army.  It is now part of a fleet of vessels operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.  The vessel was named in honor of Francis Clinton Shenehon, who was Chief Civilian Engineer of the Great Lakes Survey from 1906-1909 and was Dean of the College of Engineering at the University of Minnesota from 1909 to 1917.

rv_shenehon_t465-front-compressedTies to Shenehon Company – There is a connection between this T boat and Shenehon Company. Francis C. Shenehon was an ancestor of the late F.E. “Howard” Shenehon, who in 1929 founded a Minneapolis appraisal firm, which is now known as Shenehon Company.

Below are archive photos of the research vessel, RV Shenehon. The image on the left is from 1972 and the image on the right is from 1965.
shenehon-circa-1965 rv-shenehon-archive

 

Solar Energy: Balancing Interests in Real Property

By Michael J. Amen

At a time when climate change is having widespread impact on the world’s ecosystem, the need to expedite development of renewable energy sources is vital.  A rising source of renewable energy is solar or photovoltaic cells, the fastest growing source of renewable energy in America, according to a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API).  Approximately ten percent of energy consumed in the United States in 2014 was from a renewable source and solar energy accounted for approximately four percent of this renewable energy, according to the Institute for Energy Research.

While solar energy currently accounts for less than one percent of the total electricity generation in the United States, it is gradually becoming more affordable and consequently, more popular.  As the accessibility of solar panels has grown, the number of new installations has skyrocketed.  Almost 30 percent of the electric-generating capacity brought on-line in the United States in 2015 was solar, reports the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), and the one-millionth solar panel installation occurred in early 2016.

To encourage installation of solar panels, more than 30 states have adopted legislation providing solar protections.  While it is imperative that state and local governments be proactive in developing land planning policies that foster growth in renewable energy, it is equally as important to maintain the rights of individual property owners.  This article discusses the rights of the owner of the solar panels and neighboring property owners, and outlines solutions that balance the interests of each property owner.

The Case for Solar Panels

In 1954, scientists harnessed the energy of sunlight and converted it into electricity using photovoltaic (PV) cells, made of silicon. Photovoltaic cells make up the solar panels that are becoming more common as power sources for residential and commercial properties.  These systems are pricey and can cost  anywhere from $15,000 to $40,000 or more for a single home.  Property owners who install these systems depend on the electricity that is generated to reduce or even eliminate their utility expenses.  Photovoltaic cells convert sunlight into electricity, so it follows that the more sunlight that a cell is exposed to, the more electricity it can generate.  It is clearly favorable for the owner of a solar panel to have as much exposure to sunlight as possible.  Given the substantial initial investment of a photovoltaic solar panel system, property owners rely on sunlight, and the energy that it produces, to generate a financial return on their investment.

Hypothetical Case studies: Solar panels versus trees

To help visualize this, let’s look at two hypothetical situations involving two property owners, Sunny Savings and Debbie Developer.  Sunny is an eco-conscious consumer who rides his bike everywhere, composts his organic waste in his garden, and has recently taken an interest in renewable energy, specifically photovoltaic panels.  Debbie is a real estate mogul who has made her fortune building and selling luxury hotels, resorts, and golf courses and believes that real estate development is an essential part of the economy that should not be restricted.

Scenario One: Sunny wants to construct a $30,000 solar panel system on his home and anticipates that it will take 10 to 12 years to recoup his initial cost.  Debbie recently purchased the property to the west of Sunny’s property and would like to plant a grove of trees along the border between her property and Sunny’s.  These trees will cast shadows onto Sunny’s property and will hinder the solar access of his system, at times blocking nearly all of the sunlight from reaching his panels.  In this scenario, Sunny’s solar system will produce far less electricity than a system with unobstructed access to the sunlight, which results in a diminished opportunity to save money on his utility bills.  Consequently, the 10-to-12-year payback window he was originally expecting could be increased to 20 years or more.    What if the lengthened payback period exceeds the economic life of the system and the system stops producing electricity before Sunny can even reach his “break even” point?  If the government wants to promote renewable energy sources, shouldn’t it protect Sunny and his investment in a photovoltaic system?  Land planning regulations have begun to, and will likely continue to, promote the installation of photovoltaic systems, but at what cost?

DebbieSunny_ScenarioOne (2)

Scenario Two: Sunny has once again installed a photovoltaic system on his property. Before the installation, Debbie purchased the vacant lot to the west of Sunny’s property and is looking to escape the rush of a life in real estate development in a charming cottage that she plans to construct on the property.  Their properties are located on a hill that slopes downward towards the east, such that even though Debbie is only proposing a small, single-story home, it will still block sunlight from reaching Sunny’s solar panels.  Debbie is aware of this, but she is also an astute hotel developer that is aware of the famous “spite fence” case, Fontainebleau Hotel Corp. v. Forty-Five Twenty-Five, Inc. (1959).  In this case, the courts ruled that “there being, then, no legal right to the free flow of light and air from the adjoining land, it is universally held that where a structure serves a useful and beneficial purpose, it does not give rise to a cause of action, either for damages or for an injunction.”  The Fontainebleau case is just one example of how the English doctrine of “ancient lights,” has consistently been rejected in the United States.

DebbieSunny_ScenarioTwo

Based on the Fontainebleau decision, no property owner in America has the right to the free flow of light so Debbie should be in the clear, right?  What she is not aware of is that the Fontainebleau decision has not always held true when solar energy is involved.  In Prah v. Maretti, a homeowner that installed a solar panel system on his roof sued an adjacent property owner, who had proposed the development of a residential building on his property.  The plaintiff claimed that the residence would block sunlight to his solar panels and constituted a private nuisance.  The circuit court initially upheld the precedent of the Fontainebleau case, ruling that no one has the right to the free flow of light.  However, the Wisconsin Supreme Court later reversed the circuit court decision and ruled in favor of the plaintiff, because he was using the sunlight not just for aesthetic purposes, but as a source of energy.  The Wisconsin Supreme Court concluded that the law of private nuisance protects the plaintiff from obstruction of access to sunlight, claiming that “access to sunlight as an energy source is of significance both to the landowner who invests in solar collectors and to a society which has an interest in developing alternative sources of energy.”

It is therefore not outside the realm of possibility that Sunny could prevent Debbie from building her home and could even eliminate any development potential of the property, stripping her of all economically beneficially uses of her property.  In essence, Debbie, a private land owner, is prevented from developing her property to its highest and best use for the benefit of the public, so shouldn’t she be entitiled to “just compensation” under the Fifth Amendment?

The bottom line is that there are two interests in real property at stake here and they must both be considered in order to arrive at a conclusion that is fair for each party.  State and local governments need to take proactive steps to ensure that solar energy is encouraged while simultaneously balancing the rights of the surrounding property owners.  Many states have already taken such steps, enacting solar access laws to protect property owner access to sunlight.  These can generally be grouped into four categories: prohibition of covenants, conditions, and restrictions, solar easements, solar shading laws, and solar access regulations by local zoning authorities.

Prohibition of Covenants, Conditions, and Restrictions

Covenants, conditions, and restrictions, or CC&Rs, are often enforced by developers of large, common interest commercial and residential developments.  These restrictions can dictate the size, color, design, and most importantly, the use of the property in the development, which means that they can prohibit photovoltaic systems.  In 2012, Southshore Heights Homeowners Association in Omaha, Nebraska sued Tim Adams, a resident of the community, to force him to remove the $40,000 solar panel system from his home.  The association claimed Adams had violated the neighborhood covenants against “solar heating and cooling devices” and Adams was eventually forced to remove his solar system.

Residence_PictureOver 20 states have passed legislation that prevents homeowners associations and other common interest developments from restricting the installation of solar energy (unfortunately for Adams, Nebraska is not one of them).  This legislation will limit “NIMBY” (not in my back-yard) fights and is certainly a step in the right direction.  Common interest communities should not only permit photovoltaic panel developments, they should look for ways to encourage them while reducing any negative impacts to surrounding property owners.  Developers and homeowners associations could work in tandem with solar energy companies to bring large-scale, wholesale solar panel systems to residential communities.  These “solar communities” would create an economically efficient way for environmentally conscious residents to enjoy sustainable living using renewable energy.  This idea is already being implemented around the country with “green” common interest communities that have Covenants, Conditions, and Restrictions that require homes to be environmentally friendly and sustainable.  These communities are able to regulate the size and placement and screening of the panels to reduce any negative aesthetic effects to surrounding properties.  Overall, the prohibition of covenants, conditions, and restrictions works well to prevent common interest communities from holding back photovoltaic development with unwarranted regulations.

Solar Easements

The second type of solar access law is the most common, with more than 30 states having enacted solar easement legislation.  Solar easements are a type of negative easement, which can restrict surrounding landowners from developing their land in any way that would interfere with the rights of a landowner to receive sunlight to their solar panels.  Typical solar easements include height restrictions placed on structures and vegetation that could impair the passage of sunlight onto the dominant estate (the land that benefits from the easement).  These easements are negotiated between the two parties and often involve compensation for the servient estate (the land that is burdened by the easement).  Given the already heavy price tag of photovoltaic systems, an added cost for a solar easement could render the investment economically unfeasible.  However, the easement does protect the solar panel owner from the risk of obstruction of sunlight to their system.  It also gives property owners a mechanism to reach an agreement that can work for both of them without resorting to litigation.

Solar Shading Regulations

Only two states have enacted the third form of solar access protections, California and Wisconsin.  Under California’s Solar Shade Control Act, a tree or shrub placed after the installation of a solar collector cannot cast a shadow greater than ten percent of a solar collector’s absorption surface between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. local standard time.  When it was first enacted, the Solar Shade Control Act did not make exceptions for vegetation that existed prior to the installation of a solar panel system, which had potential consequences for property owners adjacent to a photovoltaic system.  California lawmakers passed an amendment to the Solar Shade Control Act which made all trees and shrubs that have been or will be planted prior to the installation of a solar panel system exempt from the restrictions of the Solar Shade Control Act.  This is an effective law that has worked well in California and would have protected Sunny’s solar panels from the shade of Debbie’s grove of trees in our hypothetical case.

Local Zoning Authority Creates Solar Access Regulations

The final type of solar access legislation is permitting local zoning authorities to include solar access regulations in their zoning ordinances and comprehensive plans.  Zoning ordinances include area, height, and placement regulations including minimum lot sizes, maximum height, and required setbacks from the front, rear, and sides of each lot.  These regulations are useful for balancing the rights of each property owner.  Property owners that have photovoltaic systems have protections for these systems with “solar setbacks” that account for the height of neighboring structures, the angle of the light, and the slope of the lot.  Moreover, the impact of these systems on surrounding property owners can be mitigated by regulations controlling aesthetic effects, such as glare, with setback and screening requirements. Proper zoning and land planning regulations can prevent many disputes between property owners from ever arising.

The disagreement in our hypothetical case regarding Debbie’s proposed single-family home could have been prevented with proactive zoning/land planning that regulated setbacks and lot configurations as to maximize the development potential of the area while mitigating any negative impacts on potential photovoltaic systems.  In this case, Sunny can install his solar system, Debbie can develop her property, and both parties are satisfied.  Using zoning as a solar access protection method effectively balances the rights of each property owner and offers the greatest solar access protection of all of the current methods.  More cities should adopt these proactive regulations and as they do, the policies will be continue to be updated and improved, creating stronger solar access protections while maintaining private property rights for all landowners.

Conclusion

Balancing the rights of the Sunnys and the Debbies of the world is a complicated task with a variety of potential solutions.  Although the methods vary, a proactive model to handling solar access conflicts is always ideal.  Local zoning and land planning authorities are best suited to establish such a proactive model that accounts for the rights of adjacent property owners.  Solar easements, solar shading regulations, and the prohibition of covenants, conditions, and restrictions offer additional protections for solar system owners.  With photovoltaic technology becoming more affordable every year, more and more of these potential disputes will transpire around the county.  Thus, it is vital to have regulations in place that will promote solar energy and protect the development rights of the surrounding property owners for years to come.

(Sources for this article: American Petroleum Institute, Institute for Energy Research, Solar Energy Industries Association, The Journal of Sustainable Real Estate, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory.)

Three named to Shenehon Center’s MN Real Estate Hall of Fame

Three more leaders in the Minnesota real estate industry are being added to the Minnesota Real Estate Hall of Fame, which was established by the Shenehon Center for Real Estate at the University of St. Thomas Opus College of Business.  The 2016 inductees are developer Fred Wall, broker Walter Nelson and real estate attorney Mark Westra. Hall of Fame members are selected for their outstanding business performance, high standard of ethics, and activities in the community.

Fred Wall launched his career at the Spring Co., the most prominent residential real estate company in the Twin Cities at the time, and he was quickly promoted to sales manager. From there, Wall co-founded Wall-Martin Co. and Norse Realty, and later founded WallCo.  Wall’s real estate accomplishments included owning and renovating the Foshay Tower, and partnering with Trammel Crow Co. to develop the Normandale Office Park in Bloomington. His community involvement includes supporting the United Way and the University of Minnesota Landscape Arboretum, plus leading community outreach through the Fred and Alice Wall Family Foundation.

Walter Nelson’s career spanned 56 years at the Eberhardt Co., a Minneapolis real estate advisory firm. He joined the firm in 1939 and purchased the company in 1951 after Alex Eberhardt’s death, serving as president until 1976.  Nelson remained chairman of the board until 1995.  His contributions to the community include volunteer leadership positions:  director of the Minneapolis YMCA and president of the Minneapolis Downtown Council.  Nelson was president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America in 1959 and received the Association’s Distinguished Service Award. He has also been a director at several mortgage and real estate related companies.

Mark Westra has been a leading commercial real estate attorney in the Twin Cities since 1975.  He’s been involved in hundreds of local real estate projects and has represented some of the largest lenders, developers, owners and investors in the Twin Cities.  A longtime partner at Fabyanske, Westra, Hart and Thompson, Westra’s expertise included real estate finance, zoning, land use, and leasing.  Westra has served as an instructor at Hamline Law School and has mentored many real estate attorneys in the Twin Cities area.

Measuring a Company’s Risk of Bankruptcy

By Mark T. Jude

In the world of finance there are many different types of risk and even more ways that attempt to measure or estimate that risk.  There are a numerous models and methods to estimate the risk of a company’s equity or debt, which are important in determining value.  But what about estimating a company’s risk of bankruptcy?

When Shenehon Company values a business, it calculates the business’s Altman Z-Score, which looks at a company’s risk of bankruptcy.  The Altman Z-Score model measures a company’s probability of bankruptcy within two years using financial ratios.  Instead of looking at financial ratios independently, this model uses multiple ratios to get a complete view of the company as a whole.  Ratios in the model look at liquidity, profitability, leverage and operational activity.  Each ratio on its own reveals important information and may highlight points of risk for the company, but the Z-Score measures the overall risk of the company.

This model was created in 1968 by Edward Altman, who is still a Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. The original model was created for public companies and Altman later created two additional Z-Score models: one for private manufacturing companies and another for private non-manufacturing companies.  For private business valuation we look at the latter two models.

Z-Score Model for Private Manufacturing Companies

The model for private manufacturing companies consists of five weighted factors:

  1. Working Capital to Total Assets Ratio
  2. Retained Earnings to Total Assets Ratio
  3. EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) to Total Assets Ratio
  4. Book Value of Equity to Book Value of Total Liabilities Ratio
  5. Sales to Total Assets Ratio

Factor 1 measures the liquidity (current assets minus current liabilities) of the company compared to its assets, in this case net current assets as a percentage of the total asset base.  Factor 2 measures the financial leverage of the company, with the difference between the two metrics implying debt or other liabilities.  Factor 3 measures the profitability of the company relative to its assets.  Factor 4 is another measure of the company’s financial leverage, looking at total capital.  Factor 5 measures the company’s ability to generate sales with its current level of assets.  After the ratios are calculated they are entered into the Z-Score formula shown below:

Z-Score = 0.717(F1)+0.847(F2)+3.107(F3)+0.42(F4)+0.998(F5)

To interpret the Z-Score one must compare it to three scoring ranges.  A score above 2.9 indicates that bankruptcy is not likely.  A score between 2.9 and 1.23 is known as the “grey” zone where bankruptcy may occur but is not imminent.  A score below 1.23 indicates the company is distressed and is likely to file for bankruptcy within two years.

Z-Score Model for Private Non-Manufacturing Companies

The model for private non-manufacturing companies is altered slightly.  This model omits Factor 5 and has different weighting and scoring ranges.  The model for private non-manufacturing companies is shown below:

Z-Score = 6.56(F1)+3.26(F2)+6.72(F3)+1.05(F4)

For this model a score above 2.6 indicates that bankruptcy is unlikely and a score under 1.1 indicates that bankruptcy is likely, while a score between 2.6 and 1.1 is the “grey” zone and is not a clear indicator.  According to Predicting Financial Distress of Companies: Revisiting the Z-Score and ZETA Models by Professor Altman, multiple tests performed from 1968 to 1999 have demonstrated that “the accuracy of the Z-Score model on samples of distressed firms has been in the vicinity of 80-90%, based on data from one financial reporting period prior to bankruptcy.”  The model predicted that a company would be bankrupt within the next two years and was incorrect on 15% to 20% of the time in these studies.

This model can point to weak areas in a company’s financials and show where efforts of improvement would make the largest impact, thereby minimizing the probability of bankruptcy.  For manufacturing companies or asset-intensive companies, it is common that the sales to total asset ratio has the largest impact on the Z-Score.  The model for non-manufacturing companies does not have a clear key factor and will vary on a case by case basis.

Z-Score Advantages

An advantage of the Z-Score Model is that all of the inputs are readily available on financial statements, making it simple to gather the required inputs.  There is no regression, calibration or complex statistical model needed to implement this model.  There are no assumptions made and the model does not rely on market data.  Another benefit is that the model is easy to interpret.  The score falls into one of the three categories, likely of bankruptcy, not likely of bankruptcy or in the “grey” zone of no indication.  Overall, this model is a good way for an investor, credit analyst, auditor, appraiser or business owner to estimate the company’s risk of bankruptcy.

The Complexity of Valuation Standards: Making Sense of the Acronyms

By Joseph M. Mau

The various business valuation societies rely on different valuation standards. What are they and how do they impact you?

  • The American Society of Appraisers Business Valuation (ASA) business valuation standards are to be used with the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP), developed by the Appraisal Foundation.
  • The American Institute of CPAs (AICPA) valuation standards are the Statement on Standards for Valuation Services (SSVS).
  • The International Society of Business Appraisers (ISBA) valuation standards are three sections of USPAP (Standard 3: Appraisal Review, Development and Reporting, Standard 9: Business Appraisal, Development, and Standard 10: Business Appraisal, Reporting).
  • The Institute of Business Appraisers (IBA) has developed its own valuation standards.
  • The National Association of Certified Valuators and Analysts (NACVA) has developed its own standards.

Although some of these societies have identified their own valuation standards, the one standard that is relied on above all else is USPAP.  USPAP is the only standard mentioned by the IRS in its definitions of qualified appraiser and qualified appraisal and is the standard followed in Shenehon Company valuations. That does not discredit the other standards as they are still able to meet IRS requirements for a qualified appraisal; they just are not mentioned by the IRS.

The biggest difference between all of the organizations listed above is the difference in their engagements and reporting.  There are two different types of engagements: valuation engagements and calculation engagements.  Through these engagements there are different reports that can be prepared.  For a valuation engagement, there is the appraisal also known as a detailed report, which is a comprehensive report that provides sufficient information to permit intended users to understand the data, reasoning, and analyses of the valuation analyst’s conclusion of value.  Additionally there is a restricted appraisal (USPAP and ISBA) also known as a limited appraisal or summary report. A restricted appraisal is structured to provide an abridged version of the information that would be provided in a full appraisal, and therefore, it does not require the same level of detail as a full appraisal.

For a calculation engagement, there is a calculation report.  A calculation report is in some regards similar to a summary report but the valuation analyst and client agree in advance on the approaches and methods that will be used as well as the extent of procedures that will be used to calculate the value of a business or interest, and the valuation analyst must follow that arrangement.  Calculation engagements are also required to include the following statement: “This Calculation Engagement did not include all the procedures required for a Conclusion of Value. Had a Conclusion of Value been determined, the results may have been different.”  This statement shows that a calculation engagement is not a conclusion of value and would not hold up in court.  Below is a chart of the all the organizations and the reports they perform.

Valuation reports

When it comes to the valuation societies, each society has preference on which engagements are used.  For USPAP and ISBA, only valuations are performed and calculation engagements are not used.  ASA does a calculation but does not have a full calculation report.  AICPA, IBA, and NACVA perform calculation engagements and valuation engagements.

Another key part of a valuation report is its ability to comply with IRS Revenue Ruling 59-60.  Revenue Ruling 59-60 is structured as a list of eight factors-to-consider in valuations, followed by a discussion of each factor.  USPAP is the best example of including Ruling 59-60 in its standards as USPAP Standard Rule 9-4 is almost verbatim to the IRS definition.  The eight factors from Revenue Ruling 59-60 appear in all of the organizations’ standards for a comprehensive or full report although not for a calculation or calculation report.

Some people believe that a valuation based on more than one standard is not valid. Actually that is not the case. Standards of the AICPA, ASA, IBA, NACVA, ISBA and the Appraisal Foundation’s USPAP are quite complimentary.  USPAP has more specific requirements than the other sets of standards but they are generally very similar.  Additionally, to try and remain consistent across the industry, some of the organizations have adopted a uniform set of definitions and terms that appear in their glossary/appendix; organizations following this practice are: AICPA, ASA, NACVA and IBA.

Valuation standards are a tricky concept to understand, but once you understand the basis of each engagement and report you can quickly identify which report you need.  If you are only doing retirement planning or just inquiring about how much your business might be worth, a full appraisal or detailed report is not needed, a restricted appraisal, limited appraisal, or summary report would be sufficient.  However, if you are performing estate planning or shareholder dissolution, a more thorough report such as an appraisal or detailed report would be required to hold up in court.

Economy Market View Q2 2016

Although stock market volatility and global economic concerns highlighted the first six months of the year, the U.S. economy continued to expand through the first half of 2016.  According to the latest Beige Book, seven of twelve Federal Reserve Districts, including the Minneapolis District, reported modest to moderately increasing economic activity.  Providing an optimistic outlook, healthy consumer spending continues to support activity for nonfinancial services, and strong underlying fundamentals in the real estate sector and increasing infrastructure investment are driving construction activity.  Meanwhile, the strength of the dollar and weakness in the energy sector continue to serve as significant headwinds for manufacturers, though the outlook in the manufacturing sector improved in the second quarter.

Weakness in the energy sector and a strong dollar are serving as a drag for manufacturers at the national, regional, and local levels.  After slipping into a technical recession in November of 2015, positive indications in the manufacturing sector began to emerge in the first quarter of 2016 before demonstrating noticeable improvements in the second quarter of 2016.  According to the ISM Report on Business®, the PMI® was recorded at 53.2% in June of 2016, down slightly from 53.5% noted 12 months prior, but up significantly from 48.0% recorded at the close of 2015.  In comparison, economic activity in the non-manufacturing sectors expanded for the 77th consecutive month in June of 2016.  The following graph presents the five-year historical PMI® and NMI® index readings.

PMI and NMI Indices

The energy industry continues to be hamstrung by a glut of supply and tepid demand, yet heavy debt loads prevent many domestic producers from further curtailing production.  Spot prices for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude in May of 2016 were both down over 50.0% compared to year-end 2013, putting significant pressure on exploration, drilling, and oilfield service firms.  Retail gasoline prices have fallen by nearly 30.0% during this same period, providing considerable relief to consumers and facilitating stronger margins for midstream firms.  The following graph presents retail gasoline and crude oil price performance since the close of 2013.

Energy Prices

In spite of global economic concerns and headwinds facing the energy and manufacturing sectors, improvements in the labor market, a stronger housing market, consumer confidence, and encouraging business investment, outside of the energy sector, support a cautiously optimistic economic outlook.  Further, readings from leading indicators suggest the national economy at the national, statewide, and local levels will continue to grow at modest pace through at least the immediate future.

Employment growth

Non-farm employment at the national level increased by 1.7% over the year ended in June of 2016.  Job growth in the service-producing sectors is leading increasing overall payroll figures, with the most robust gains noted within the professional/business services and education/health services sectors.  From a year-over-year perspective, payroll figures in the service-producing sectors increased by 2.0% in June, followed by the government/public sector (0.6%) and the goods-producing sectors (0.3%).  The following graph presents overall national non-farm employment growth.

US employment growth

Employment gains across nearly all major markets continue to put downward pressure on unemployment rates from coast to coast.  In turn, tighter unemployment rates and a shortage of skilled labor are putting upward pressure on wages, as many companies are facing difficulties attracting and retaining higher quality workers.  Nationally, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in June of 2016, down 40 basis points from 5.5% recorded one year prior.  In comparison, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the state of Minnesota stood at 3.3% in June of 2016, down 50 basis points from 3.8% recorded in the prior month and 20 basis from 3.5% in June of 2015.  From a statewide perspective, unemployment remains lowest in the Mankato and Rochester markets (2.7%), followed by the Twin Cities (3.1%) and St. Cloud (3.3%) markets.  The following graph presents non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates at the national, regional, and local levels.

Unemployment MN cities

Non-farm employment in the Twin Cities metropolitan area increased by 1.5% over the year ended in May of 2016 on the net addition of 28,400 jobs.  Mirroring trends observed at the national level, growth in the Twin Cities market was strongest within the education/health services and leisure/hospitality (2.5%) sectors, which combined to add 15,000 jobs.  The following graph presents overall non-farm employment growth in the Twin Cities metropolitan area.

TC employment growth

Confidence among business owners and investment activity suggest the Minnesota economy will continue to expand at least through the near term, likely outperforming trends observed at the national and regional levels.  According to a recent survey conducted by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, a majority of business service firms anticipate growth in sales and profits in 2017.  Moreover, the employment outlook among business service firms remains encouraging, with 92.0% of respondents expecting stable or improving employment conditions.

Planned Minnesota Expansions

Private and public investment activity within the state of Minnesota also provides an optimistic outlook.  Kraft Heinz announced plans for a $100 million investment in the company’s production facility in New Ulm, which will add four new production lines and 50 new jobs at the facility by the close of 2017.  Cliffs Natural Resources announced plans to invest $65 million over the next two years and restart options at the United Taconite mine and pellet plant on the Iron Range in August.  In addition, executives at Mayo Clinic announced in June they are seeking to find a developer to help build out more than 1 million square feet of clinic-owned land within the Discovery Square district as part of the Destination Medical Center.

Real Estate Markets Remain Strong

Residential and commercial real estate markets throughout Minnesota also remain strong.  Most notably, the for-sale residential sector in the Twin Cities market has demonstrated impressive growth through the first six months of 2016.  The number of year-to-date closed home sales in the Twin Cities market increased by 6.2% through May of 2016, while the median home sale price increased by 5.6%, rising from $214,000 in May of 2015 to $225,900 in May of 2016.  Further indicating healthy demand, the average days on market decreased by 16.5% and the percentage of original list price received increased by 1.1% during this same period, as available inventory remains relatively limited.  Activity in the for-sale residential sector also appears to have spurred a more bullish outlook from homebuilders, as permitting activity in the state of Minnesota is up over 18.0% year-to-date through May.

Despite stronger competition from the for-sale residential sector, conditions in the apartment market remain healthy, with underlying fundamentals in the Twin Cities apartment market remaining among the strongest in the nation.  Benefitting existing apartment owners and operators, new apartment construction activity may have reached a cyclical peak, as year-to-date multifamily permitting activity is down over 45.0% compared to the first five months of 2015 and down nearly 55.0% compared to the first five months of 2014.  Demographic trends are in place to suggest demand for apartment units will remain healthy over the long term, and a decline in the pace of new construction will put upward pressure on occupancy levels and asking rents.  Further, benefitting apartment owners has been the run-up in housing prices in the local Twin Cities market.  The following graph presents median home sale price trends in the Twin Cities metropolitan area.

TC median homes sales price

Although there has been a great deal of discussion on the pace of apartment rent growth in recent years, the median home sale price in the Twin Cities market has quietly increased by an average of approximately 9.25% annually over the last five years, rising from $145,000 in May of 2011 to $225,900 in May of 2016.  Rising home sale prices and a scarcity of desirable for-sale inventory will continue to keep some potential homeowners in the renter pool.  On the investment side, capital in the apartment market is becoming more selective and disciplined, but strong interest from apartment investors has been observed for 1970s and 1980s vintage value-add deals through first six months of 2016. This trend which appears to be in the early innings as construction costs continue to climb at a relatively steep trajectory and investors continue to see healthy returns on investment in value-add deals.

Commercial Real Estate Sector

Improvements also continue to be noted within the commercial real estate sectors in the Twin Cities market.  Vacancy rates in the retail sector continue to tighten, putting significant upward pressure on rents.  Although an overall net gain for the local market, rising asking rents for retail space have held back demand to some extent, as the swift pace of rent growth is beginning to price-out some retailers from entering or expanding in the Twin Cities market.  Investment activity in the retail market continues to remain strong for single-tenant net lease properties, particularly for newly-built drug store and quick service restaurant assets, while grocery-anchored shopping centers also remain in favor among investors.

In the local office market, healthy absorption continues to support improving underlying fundamentals.  Significant improvements in market fundamentals have been noted within the St. Paul Central Business District (CBD) in the most recent quarters, as the core of St. Paul emerges as a live/work/play destination and office-to-apartment conversions continue to remove space from the existing inventory.  Two big question marks for the office market, however, are lingering.  The first question is whether organic demand will remain strong enough to absorb the existing space vacated by tenants shuffling into newly built office product.  Second is the degree to which Financial Accounting Standards 13 (FAS 13) will impact the office market.  Although the goal of FAS 13 is to create greater transparency for stakeholders, the response from the market to this newly available information will dictate the degree of impact.

Data referenced in this report was current as of July 8, 2016, and includes preliminary figures, which are subject to revision.

 

John Schmick articles noted in Spring 2016 issue of Appraisal Journal, called “important”

Several articles by Shenehon Company appraiser John Schmick were identified in the Spring 2016 issue of the Appraisal Journal as important resources for appraisers. The Journal is the official publication of the Appraisal Institute and is the industry’s leading publication.

DSC_5925An article by Schmick and Jeffrey K. Jones published in the Fall 2014 Appraisal Journal was called “one of the very important articles for appraisers involved in corridor valuations.” This article was titled, “Is Across the Fence Methodology Consistent with Professional Standards?”

Four articles by Schmick that have appeared in Right of Way magazine are also listed as “Noteworthy Corridor Valuation-Related Articles.”

Schmick’s expertise in corridor valuation was included in Resource Center, an Appraisal Journal column by Dan L. Swango, PhD, MAI, SRA.  Swango is one of the most well-respected valuation experts in the United States.

You can see Schmick’s extensive list of published articles and access the articles by visiting his online bio at www.shenehon.com/john-t-schmick/.

Congratulations John on being recognized in Appraisal Journal!

External Obsolescence Issues in Guardian Energy, LLC vs. County of Waseca (Heard in State of Minnesota Supreme Court)

By William C. Herber and Laura A. Wisneski

External obsolescence is a type of depreciation that results from external influences, and often reduces the value of a property.  For example, if a landfill is constructed next to a home, the value of the home will likely fall, through no fault of its own and regardless of the condition of the home itself.

Several years ago, Guardian Energy (Guardian) contested the property tax value assessed to their property in Waseca County, Minnesota.  Guardian Energy operates an ethanol plant on 140 acres in Janesville, and felt the County Assessor’s values for the property in 2009, 2010, and 2011, were too high.  After their grievances were heard by the Tax Court, an appeal was made to the Minnesota Supreme Court.  The case was eventually heard in 2015 by the Minnesota Supreme Court, which focused on two issues: 1) whether the determination that the ethanol tanks on the property were real property, and 2) the tax court’s independent determination of external obsolescence.  For this article, we will only focus on the application of external obsolescence.

ethanol plant reduced

Both sides presented the court with their determination of external obsolescence for the property.  Guardian proposed a 33.3 percent reduction for each year, based on the 40% decline in commercial market values generally, and an industry-wide decrease in the profit margin of ethanol resulting from overcapacity, lower demand, and the increased price of corn.  Upon further examination, however, Guardian admitted that its profit margins were higher than industry averages.  The court also took issue with Guardian’s reliance on the price per gallon of ethanol as an indicator of the decline in value of the property, stating that the price is related to the value of the business rather than the value of the property.  The tax court cited a previous case where it was determined that “a failure to meet sales projections, does not, by itself, demonstrate that a property suffers from external obsolescence.1

Guardian’s property, however, was not a run-of-the-mill office building, where any number of businesses could operate.  An ethanol plant is a special-purpose property, and the County, while estimating slightly different reduction percentages, agreed with Guardian’s methods in this respect by also considering the price per gallon and general industry trends in its calculations.   The county concluded 45 percent, 35 percent, and 25 percent reductions for external obsolescence for each year, while Guardian Energy used 33 percent for all three years.

Rather than relying on the testimony of either side, the tax court used an entirely different approach to calculate its own determination of external obsolescence.  By taking national levels of demand and comparing these to levels of production, the tax court determined the property’s function obsolescence reduction at 16 percent, 8 percent, and 0 percent.  While the tax court would have been within its rights to reject the methods used by both sides, if it deemed them inappropriate, it would still be required to explain why it used the method it ended up choosing.  The Supreme Court decided that the tax court failed to adequately explain its reasoning for selecting this particular method of determining external obsolescence and failed to show that the method it selected is an accepted approach.

The Supreme Court could also not understand how the property value could be separated from the value of the viability of the business, because as stated previously, this was a special-use property that could only have one practical use, and “capitalization of the income loss attributable to the negative market influences is a generally respected approach to calculating external obsolescence.”  The Supreme Court acknowledged the complexity involved in determining the value of property and would not provide an opinion of which method(s) should apply, but instead recommended the case be remanded to the tax court for further proceedings.

Shenehon Company supplied the appraisal report for Guardian Energy.

1 State of Minnesota in Supreme Court A14-1883, A14-2168